Greetings, everyone. I hope you're holding on as we get into the thick of the season. It is still very early, but I hope you've found some positives in your team values and points scored. This weekend will be another CCC-affected set of games as Vancouver, Seattle and Cincinnati prepare for road games in Mexico in addition to Columbus, LAFC, Galaxy and Miami keeping their eyes on next week's games with all to play for (mostly). Once we get through this week, we will have a few weeks of "normalcy" until the (few?) teams that make it through return to CCC action in early April. Let's jump right into it.
Week 3 quick rankings
GK – Patrick Schulte (CLB $6.7m), Stefan Frei/Andrew Thomas (SEA $6.0/$5.0), Joe Willis (NSH $7.1m), Yohei Takaoka (VAN $5.9m), Oscar Ustari (MIA $4.0m)
DEF – [Columbus Defender, see below], Aaron Herrera (DCU $6.6m), Paul Arriola/Jackson Ragen/Jonathan Bell (SEA $7.0m/$6.9m/$4.9m), Kai Wagner (PHI $8.1m), Walker Zimmerman/Wyatt Meyer (NSH $7.4m/$5.3m), Omar Valencia (NYRB $5.0m), Tristian Blackmon/Ali Ahmed (VAN $6.5m/$6.0m)
MID – Lucho Acosta (DAL $8.6m), Ryan Gauld (VAN $9.5m), Evander (CIN $9.1m), Telasco Segovia (MIA $6.7m), Daniel Gazdag (PHI $8.8m), Hany Mukhtar (NSH $8.5m), Maxi Morales (NYC $7.1m), Georgi Minoungou (SEA $5.2m), Brian Gutierrez/Jonathan Bamba (CHI $8.3m/$7.7m)
FWD – Leo Messi/Luis Suarez (MIA $10.4m/$9.2m), Petar Musa (DAL $9.5m), Christian Benteke (DCU $9.3m), Tai Baribo (PHI $8.3m), Denis Bouanga (LAFC $8.5m), Brian White (VAN $8.3m), Alonso Martinez ($8.4m), Jesus Ferreira ($7.5m), Hugo Cuypers (CHI $8.5m)
Week 3 schedule
The earliest game this week is Columbus hosting Houston, followed by Seattle hosting LAFC. Two very intriguing games for fantasy, given the strength of the teams involved, but there is the added wrinkle of LAFC traveling to face Columbus in CCC on Tuesday with a 3-0 lead. Seattle, of course, also travels to play Cruz Azul. Do the three teams rotate heavily to save their big guns for next week? Do LAFC or Seattle play it mostly full strength to try and take points from a top rival in the standings? Does Columbus shift some focus to MLS play and let what happens against LAFC happen, considering they will need an identical 3-0 win or better to advance? Depending on who is involved, I could see recommending a range of players from all three teams (I'm probably staying away from Houston until further notice).
The rest of the weekend proceeds with MLS's new schedule, a slate of 7:30 pm local games and then two Sunday matches. At 4:30 pm PT, I am looking closely at the lineup Cincinnati uses to host Toronto and looking to the NYCFC vs. Orlando game for some goals. At 5:30 pm PT I am eagerly anticipating Dallas playing Chicago and buying in to Dallas scoring some goals. At 6:3o pm PT I will also be using some Vancouver players if they use an A-squad versus Montreal. And the lone 7:30 pm PT game is San Jose playing Minnesota.
Sunday has Miami vs. Charlotte and Galaxy vs. St. Louis. Considering that Messi sat out both the Houston and Cavalier matches, he should be rested and ready to go after reportedly being "tired" this past week. St. Louis will be playing in Southern California for the second week in a row, and they have yet to score or concede a goal. Not great for fantasy purposes unless you are excited to pick a road defender.
Positional rankings
Clean sheets
Columbus – The Crew are hosting Houston, who so far have the fifth lowest xG in the league despite playing both of their opening games at home and having no CCC action as an excuse for their slow start. The Crew just earned a road CS in New England and their history suggests they should be able to handle Houston just fine at home, even with a rotated lineup. They are the first team playing this week and Patrick Schulte and whoever is starting on defense will be popular picks.
Moreira ($8.1m) has an assist, 5 total KPs, and two passing BPs each week so far. Farsi ($7.6m) only had 2 points Week 1 but exploded for 12 last week behind their CS, an assist and BPs for KPs and passes. He's had 7 KPs in both games. Cheberko ($7.3m) doesn't have KPs or assists but has over 105 passes in both games so far for 6 total BPs. Any one of them is a good pick. Be on the lookout for Jones ($6.1m) or Herrera ($5.5m) starting, as they could be budget options to get a piece of the defense but would be a risk to be subbed early (hopefully not so early they miss the minutes played minimum to earn the CS points).
Seattle - Despite giving up four goals in MLS play so far, Seattle has an above-average xGA at 1.6. And despite winning two games thus far, LAFC has a below average xG at 1.7. I know LAFC just put up three goals on Columbus, but they were able to do that in part because the only road trip they have taken so far was playing in Colorado on February 18th to open the season. Since then, they have had four straight home games against Colorado (1-0), Minnesota (1-0), NYCFC (1-0), and Columbus (3-0). Seattle's 3-4-3/5-2-2-1 system is largely designed to suffocate teams like LAFC, keeping them from having time and room to implement their transition attack.
If Seattle is starting its mostly first-team defense, and LAFC is resting at least a few key starters, I think this is a great spot to find a CS this week. Frei ($6.0m) or Thomas ($5.0m) are good calls, then depending on who is starting, Arriola ($7.0m), Ragen ($6.9m) or Bell ($4.9m) are who I'd target.
Nashville – Portland has started the year with two home games, and the only goal they scored so far was a free kick by David Da Costa in the 89th minute that froze Brad Stuver and just bounced into the net after no one got a touch to it. Maybe they need more time for him to gel with the team, but Portland are off to a slow start tied for second lowest xG so far. I was very confidently wrong about Portland last week and my fantasy team suffered for it (oops). I am looking forward to being right this week. Zimmerman ($7.4m) is the headliner, but Meyer ($5.3m) might be a strong budget play assuming he gets another start (and actually makes it past 60 minutes unlike last week in New York).
Vancouver – Montreal is off to two unpleasant road losses so far and looks likely for a third in a row in Vancouver. The Whitecaps defense has been strong so far. Although they gave up a goal to the Galaxy and to Monterrey, Montreal does not present as much of a threat, talent-wise. If Vancouver is fielding a strong squad to host their Canadian rivals, I like their chances.
Individual defenders
Kai Wagner ($8.1m) had another assist in Philly's destruction of Cincinnati, though his bonus points fell off. New England has had a strong defense, but Philly has still scored eight goals. I am not taking him this week due to his price and the opponent, but he could easily wind up the highest scoring defender of the week, especially if New England's attack continues to falter.
Aaron Herrera ($6.6m) picked up an assist against the Fire and seemingly inherited Wagner's offensive bonuses with 9 KPs and 6 crosses. I am anticipating more of the same at home against Kansas City.
Omar Valencia ($5.0m) continues to impress for NYRB, picking up an assist to go with his clean sheet last week. He didn't quite make the mark for bonus points, but has 8 total KPs across the two opening weeks. With Atlanta's soft defense, he'll have opportunities to get on the score sheet again.
Keep an eye on: Alex Freeman ($4.3m) has been hampered by Orlando's generosity in giving up goals, but earned 7 KPs in just 35 minutes during Week 1, with four more in 90 minutes plus a goal of his own last week. At 20 years old, he's got a lot of growth ahead of him and if Orlando can figure out the defense with him as a starter, he could be a very useful fantasy asset. Shaq Moore ($6.1m) has had four KPs in each game for Dallas so far, both of them on the road. If he can build on his connections as Lucho gets used to his Dallas teammates, he could see plenty of scoresheet contributions this year.
Attackers
Lucho Acosta ($8.6m) and Petar Musa ($9.5m) – Musa had a goal and assist in both games so far this year and Acosta clicked last week with a goal of his own and 8 KPs. Dallas is now at home hosting Chicago. They seem like clear top 2-3 choices this week at their positions.
Telasco Segovia ($6.7m), Luis Suarez ($9.2m) and Leo Messi ($10.4m) – Segovia is a shockingly affordable attacking midfielder for Miami who has been making things run with or without Messi on the field. He played 75 minutes against Cavalier last night, taking 6 corners and was credited with 3 crosses. He already has 3 goals in MLS play in just 104 minutes. He may be a must-own going forward when he starts. I don't need to explain Suarez and Messi, just check the lineups.
Ryan Gauld ($9.5m) and Brian White ($8.3m) – If these guys start, there's barely a better matchup for them than at home against Montreal. I'm not as high on White as other options this week, but I'm including him as he's a potential option to save on your budget if the $9.0+ options are too expensive. Gauld just played 86 minutes against Monterrey, so definitely check the lineups ahead of time and temper expectations.
Evander ($9.1m) – He's not yet playing up to his potential, but he should improve every week as he settles into Cincinnati. Just be careful, as like Gauld he played 87 minutes on Tuesday against Tigres and has to be ready for the away leg.
Christian Benteke ($9.3m) – He's got two goals so far and has added a lot of BP production. Last week he had 12 KPs and 8 shots for 5 BPs, which was unfortunately weighed down by a terrible PK miss that was an eight-point swing (-3 for the miss instead of +5 for a goal). DC is hosting a struggling Kansas City this week, which should be an excellent opportunity for Benteke to continue his hot start.
Hany Mukhtar ($8.5m) – No scoresheet contributions yet but he has 16 KPs and bonuses for shots and passes. At home against the Timbers would be a good time to get off the schneid.
Daniel Gazdag ($8.8m) and Tai Baribo ($8.3m) – Gazdag has a goal and assist and Baribo has five (FIVE!) goals already this year. There is no way Philly keeps up this pace, but it goes to show that their new approach under Bradley Carnell is working. They're on the road against an organized New England side, so I'm not expecting a lot of goals in this one, but it can pay to ride the hot hand and Baribo especially is due for a guaranteed price rise.
Maxi Morales ($7.1m) and Alonso Martinez ($8.4m) – NYCFC is making its home debut this week, after two tough road games at Miami and at LAFC. These two are the guys most likely to benefit from Orlando's defensive struggles. I'm not sure they are in my top 5/3 options this week but could be very good if you are looking for someone slightly cheaper or a big differential.
Georgi Minoungou ($5.2m) and Jesus Ferreira ($7.5m) – I am not going to lie – Georgi had a rough weekend at Salt Lake, but he should be much more comfortable at home. Ferreira looks likely to start in place of Morris or Rusnak, and he should get a lot of looks leading the attacking line. LAFC still has one of the best defenses in the league, so expectations are not super high here, but they could be good budget and differential options.
Denis Bouanga ($8.5m) – If he's starting and attacking short-term signee Kalani Kossa-Rienzi on one side and a combination of Jonathan Bell and Paul Rothrock on the other, he'll get a lot of good chances to counter and get on the scoresheet.
Brian Gutierrez ($8.3m), Jonathan Bamba ($7.7m), Hugo Cuypers ($8.5m) – Even though Chicago's defense is still a work in progress, this attacking trio has started off the year very strong. In Week 1, it was Bamba's two assists to Guti that kept Chicago in the game against Columbus, and in Week 2 with Guti suspended, Cuypers put in two goals against DCU. Bamba and Cuypers each have 3 KPs and Guti was just off the mark on a few in Week 1. Dallas has allowed four goals so far, and it will be interesting to see if this trio keeps up Chicago's early streak of multiple goal games.
Captain considerations
Leo Messi – If he's not too tired to play then I think you have to go with him.
Lucho Acosta – He has no CCC distractions and gets to host Chicago for Dallas's home opener.
Petar Musa – The beneficiary of Lucho's chance creation and is perfectly capable of feeding teammates himself (he assisted Lucho's goal last week).
Christian Benteke – Why not stick with last year's Golden Boot winner at home?
Tai Baribo – He has the second highest Goals - npxG at 1.8 goals above what he would be expected to score. So, he's clearly overperforming at 5 goals so far this year. However, he also has the highest npxG and npxG/90 at 3.2 and 1.9, respectively. The closest two in npxG are Cuypers at 2.2 and Kelvin Yeboah at 1.7. He has been creating lots of very high-quality looks with nearly double the npxG as third place. Again, I don't expect Philly to keep this up but it's not like they've been just really really lucky.
Parting words
As with last week, be careful with lineups. CCC rotation could make certain matchups very volatile, especially if teams send out full backup squads. I think St. Louis, Montreal, and Charlotte could be big beneficiaries, although they are all on the road. Seattle vs. LAFC could tilt one way or the other depending on each side's rotation. And, of course, plenty of teams are still integrating new players and getting guys fit, while adjusting to new teammates and coaches and tactics, so lineups are extra fluid in the early season. If you can't check lineups, try and pick from non-CCC teams and pick nailed-in starters. You'll avoid a lot of headaches that way. Good luck!
