Welcome friends, one and all, to a veritable smorgasbord of good home teams facing bad road teams. I'm not exactly sure how often this happens, but no road teams are favored by odds makers. The best they've got is Seattle at Colorado being a push (+160 either way). Now, I'm not saying oddsmakers or gamblers know best; they have the Galaxy as a solid favorite over the Timbers, which seems foolish to me, though I'm not the one risking my money. It still seems remarkable that there are no road favorites. There are clearly some matchups to target. That does not make them guarantees, of course – this is still MLS – but I think we could see some big scores this week.
Week 10 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Andre Blake (PHI 6.9m), Carlos Coronel (RBNY 7.5m), Kristijan Kahlina (CLT 8.4m), SJ Dos Santos (SD 7.1m), Hugo Lloris (LAFC 7.1m)
Defenders
Luca Orellano (CIN 9.6m), Kai Wagner (PHI 10.6m), Omar Valencia (RBNY 6.5m), Adilson Malanda/Nick Scardina (CLT 9.3m/5.0m), Paddy McNair (SD 8.8m), Aaron Long/Ryan Hollingshead (LAFC 8.2m/6.8m)
Midfielders
Evander (CIN 10.7m), Martin Ojeda (ORL 11.5m), Daniel Gazdag (CLB 9.0m), Albert Rusnak (SEA 12.1m), Djordje Mihailovic (COL 10.7m), Quinn Sullivan (PHI 9.9m), Jack McGlynn (HOU 10.6m), Budget: Liel Abada (CLT 7.4m)
Forwards
Leo Messi (MIA 12.9m), Diego Rossi/Jacen Russell-Rowe (CLB 8.5m), Kevin Denkey (CIN 8.8m), Kelvin Yeboah/Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (MIN 9.8m/9.1m), Denis Bouanga (LAFC 8.5m), Felipe Mora (POR 8.3m), Budget: Jesus Ferreira (SEA 6.9m)
Week 10 schedule
This week, more than any other this year, has games spread out across the weekend. We start Saturday at 11:30am Pacific with the last match ending a little after 8:00pm on Sunday. There’ll be lots of time to tinker or adjust lineups however you want to approach the weekend.
11:30am starts with Toronto hosting NYC and Cincinnati playing Kansas City. TFC finally picked up their first win last week, but have only scored two goals in their past four games. NYCFC has been up and down – they managed to beat Philadelphia at home but then lost to New England. They drew the Crew but lost to Atlanta and Minnesota. Totally reasonable to take some Toronto players as an early differential, but there are probably better matchups to target on the weekend.
On the other hand, Cincinnati has the kind of game we like to see. SKC finally got a couple of wins with Vermes gone, scoring nine goals in their past three games, but they still allowed three to SJ and four to Portland. Cincinnati have won four in a row and Evander is healthy and immediately back to (F)MVP form.
At 1:30pm New York Red Bulls get Montreal back on the road, while Philadelphia are against DC. Though Montreal has managed some draws, they still lack any firepower, with just four goals on the season (versus 9.8 xG, so maybe a flood of goals are due?) and no wins. That said, the Red Bulls have a trifecta of three wins, three losses, and three draws, so don't expect the moon – they are looking like a play-in team at best. DC got a win at NYRB by scoring two goals after having to sub out Benteke for injury and holding on, but I think they will find Philadelphia much tougher to crack, especially with Benteke likely out.
Orlando plays Atlanta at 4:15pm, getting the night slate started a bit early. I'm curious whether Atlanta's haphazard defense can ignite Orlando's offense back to life. After scoring over two goals a game in the first six matches of the season and allowing exactly two goals a game, they have inflicted three straight 0-0 draws on their fans (and fantasy owners).
4:30pm sees Charlotte vs New England, Columbus vs San Jose, and San Diego vs Real Salt Lake. Good luck to those visitors, they'll certainly need it.
5:30pm has Houston hosting Austin and Nashville against Chicago. And while I understand why these home teams are favored, Nashville has lost three of their last four and the Dynamo are tied for the second fewest points in the league for good reason.
6:30pm has the last game of the night (no 7:30pm kickoffs) as Seattle visits Colorado. I believe Seattle will take care of business in Commerce City, but I'm not so confident to pass up on other high quality options this week, given Seattle's struggles at times this season.
Sunday's four matches are Minnesota against Vancouver at noon, Miami vs Dallas at 2:00pm, LAFC hosting St. Louis at 4:00pm and the Galaxy playing the Timbers at 6:00pm. That is about eight hours of pure, (mostly) uninterrupted soccer. Excellent.
For these games I'm wondering if Vancouver even tries against Minnesota, considering the magnitude of their upcoming CCC game on Wednesday. I honestly think it would maybe be the smart move to call in sick for the game and just not go. "Oh, we all have the flu, or maybe covid? Whatever we don't need a doctor's note for." Minnesota could easily jump all over the Whitecaps reserve squad, a little like Chicago did in Vancouver a month ago.
Miami are at home so should be fine to send out a strong squad against Dallas, but for fantasy purposes I'm worried about minutes for some of the key guys. LAFC should cruise against St. Louis, but they've also dropped a lot of points in winnable games this year. Their defense is dramatically worse than it has been in recent history. I'm sure they're still playoff bound anyway. I doubt that St. Louis will be.
Meanwhile, the Galaxy have looked every bit as bad as their six goals scored, sixteen allowed, -10 GD and -10.2 xGD. I'm looking to avoid this matchup if I can, it seems likely that Portland walks away with at least a point but this could also easily be a "get right" game for the Galaxy. We'll see.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Philadelphia (vs DC) – DC is missing their best player in Benteke and another important attacker in Peglow, who is one of only four players on DC with more than 1 xG and has two goals and two assists. Peglow was the one who scored the two goals in DC's win over the Red Bulls. Without those two, they'll have a tough time against Philly on the road. And of course take Kai Wagner (10.6m), he's worth the premium.
New York Red Bulls (vs MTL) – Montreal is one of two winless teams this year. They've only scored two goals in nine games. They only managed a single goal in their opening two home games, coming away with a point. Red Bulls will be missing Dylan Nealis to injury for a while, but they're still a reasonable bet. With a lack of standout players, I think Omar Valencia (6.5m) is a nice budget-friendly option with an upside to build on his two assists on the season.
Charlotte (vs NE) – This is maybe the matchup I am least sure about, with Charlotte missing Doumbia and Byrne, their preferred outside backs. That means means Tim Ream and former Washington Husky (and Portland native) Nick Scardina (5.0m) will be trying to stop New England's resurgence. I am skeptical of Charlotte's place at the top of the Eastern Conference, but you cannot deny their results. Adilson Malanda (9.3m) is the veteran presence and higher scoring player, but Scardina is very valuable at his price point in this defense.
San Diego (vs RSL) – San Diego has been two teams: a terrifyingly lethal home team and largely a pushover on the road. Back at home against RSL they should have an easy time dispatching an inferior squad. RSL did get some reinforcements just before the transfer window closed, but they won't be able to help the team yet.
LAFC (vs St. Louis) – St. Louis has just five goals on the season and LAFC have in recent history been one of the strongest defenses at home. That defense is still largely intact and are facing maybe the second worst offense in the league. Seems like a mismatch to me.
Luca Orellano (vs SKC, 9.6m) – SKC have been playing fun attacking soccer lately, piling on the goals. That being said, Cincinnati on the road should be a much tougher test than others they've passed recently. And you can bet there will be offensive chances to go around for Orellano to capitalize on. He has the second highest expected goals on the team, now he just has to convert his chances. You'll want him on your team when he does.
Midfielders
Evander (CIN 10.7m) – He's back. He should be in your team.
Martin Ojeda (ORL 11.5m) – I am hesitant to back Orlando given they are coming off of a run of 0-0 games, but Atlanta is missing all(?) their healthy CBs and it has shown on the score lines lately. Might as well put him out there, what's the worst that could happen?
Daniel Gazdag (CLB 9.0m) – A whole lot of "almost" chances against Miami, he's looking highly likely to be a fantasy star again once he's clicking with Columbus. At home against San Jose is an excellent time to really get going with his new team.
Albert Rusnak (SEA 12.1m) – IF he starts (a big IF, Schmetzer has shown total loyalty to the 3-4-3 and it seems hard to bench any of the front three with their form lately) he's an option of the highest quality against a shaky defense. I expect the Sounders to control this game, whoever is out there, giving Rusnak a ton of chances and, importantly, key plays.
Djordje Mihailovic (COL 10.7m) – Even though I expect Seattle to control the match, Mihailovic has been on a hot run of form in his past four games, scoring four goals (mostly PKs, but they count the same) and earning three KPs in each of those games. He'll get chances and will be most likely to capitalize if Seattle commits the fatal errors that have plagued them this season.
Quinn Sullivan (PHI 9.9m) – Last week, I felt very smart for putting in Pedro de la Vega and earning his eight points. The bad news for me: I scrubbed Sullivan to put him in and did not earn Sullivan's 12 points. Last week it was a goal and assist, rather than a pile of KPs, that got him to his double-digit score. At home against DC's very very bad defense is a good time to get him in.
Jack McGlynn (HOU 10.6m) – A slight disappointment last week, he still scored six points with no goal contribution. Austin is a tougher defense, but McGlynn isn't earning most of his points from goal contributions anyway. Austin will likely cede control to Houston, who are built to control the ball anyway, letting McGlynn rack up those passes and key plays.
Budget: Liel Abada (CLT 7.4m) – Pep Biel is getting the spotlight, but Abada was the one outscoring him last week in fantasy. Abada went 90 minutes for the first time this season, scoring a goal with 8 KPs and 4 shots on goal for three bonus points. Maybe a good time to take the cheaper of these two options.
Forwards
Leo Messi (MIA 12.9m) – Messi has disappointed in three matches in a row. Don't be surprised if he starts against Dallas anyway and has a hat trick, then has another against Vancouver on top. He's that guy. Though I understand if, given the situation and what's at stake on Wednesday, you are not as enticed as normal.
Diego Rossi/Jacen Russell-Rowe (CLB 8.5m) – My issue here is that though they have an incredible opportunity for points, I have no idea where they're going to go. Rossi has had two huge double-goal games, one game with a goal and nine points, then is averaging three points in his other six matches, some of them against very poor defenses. Russell-Rowe has a similar issue but has a lower ceiling. And Gazdag may be taking penalties, taking away more from Rossi. I can talk myself into them against San Jose, but I am wary.
Kevin Denkey (CIN 8.8m) – As bad as San Jose's defense is, Kansas City's might be worse. Denkey has yet to show he was worth the transfer fee (at least as far as fantasy is concerned, four goals isn't bad), but he's still a central piece to a good offense in a plus matchup.
Kelvin Yeboah/Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (MIN 9.8m/9.1m) – These guys are here only if Vancouver sends in the clowns scrubs. I can see them feasting on a Whitecaps 2 team. Otherwise stay away.
Denis Bouanga (LAFC 8.5m) – He looked like his old terrifying self against Portland, getting in behind at will and creating a ton of chances. St. Louis may not be as vulnerable as Portland, but Bouanga at his best is in the top five strikers in the league. Maybe it's time he's back in our lineups.
Felipe Mora (POR 8.3m) – The Galaxy are very, very bad right now and Mora has had some explosive games lately. As tempting as Pec or Paintsil might be, the Galaxy have not shown they are anything resembling the team that won the Cup last year. If you were banking on Messi and need a late option, Mora is my choice.
Budget: Jesus Ferreira (SEA 6.9m) – The week after I recommended him, of course he then gets his two assists. He went 90 minutes and was active in facilitating play even as the subs came and went. With more rotation in store this weekend (don't be surprised if Rusnak and Morris each go 45 minutes and de la Vega is pulled a little after 60 minutes again), Ferreira has established himself as an every minute player going forward. At this price, I am very interested.
Captain considerations
Leo Messi – I mean, of course. Even given the situation he's still top tier.
Evander – The obvious non-Messi choice. He was the right call the past two weeks and may be the right call again.
Daniel Gazdag – He passed the eye test last week, against San Jose I won't be surprised if he scores a hat trick.
Martin Ojeda – Atlanta's defense is weak and Orlando has stored up a lot of xG luck and are surely set to score a bunch in this rivalry match. That is how xG works, isn't it?
