MLS teams win 50% of their home games and get a draw in 50% of the rest (the numbers are generally true over the years and may have minor meaningless variance in any given season). Want to check that? Look at the first win probability numbers shared on every Apple TV broadcast.
The Seattle Sounders are in a mediocre 11th place in the West. It's early in the season and you've heard so much about injuries that you've started calling a reason an excuse, but you may have forgotten the truism that winning on the road is rare.
Last season only two teams won more than 50% of their road games (Inter Messi and Cincinnati). In 2023 that number was one (Orlando) while in 2022 Montreal and Red Bulls did it. Pre-covid it was even rarer. For example, the absolute best road team from 2009 to the present only won more than 50% of its road games in 2011, not even in the year when it won the Shield – that's Seattle, by the way.
Why is this relevant today?
Because the supposedly easy road swing resulted in four points in three played, a rather decent 1.33 ppm. But that road swing also carved something into the narrative – the Sounders are bad, because they are a lowly 11th in the standings.
Seattle is playing its 4th home match this season. They are undefeated at home. There have been disappointments (Houston, Cruz Azul) and there have been highs.
Mostly there have been reminders that playing more games on the road than at home is a recipe for a false narrative (similar to the false narrative that Liga MX isn't better than MLS because MLS dominates Leagues Cup).
With a strong lineup and strong bench ready to perform the expectation for Sounders fans should be for a win. It's not that they are due. They're the team that writers here and nationally thought they were from the start – one that rarely loses at home and that has a history of being strong on the road.
Small sample sizes don't change that.
Some may say this is maintaining the faith. My response would be that the science backs me up. Hit up your favorite advanced metrics site or just stare at the history of the club and the history of the league.
This is not to argue that the play on the field can be disappointing. That's fair. Having less than ideal talent available can force lackluster play and feelings of angst, disappointment and fan-destroying emotions.
But Seattle's probably going to win today. And then in early May they'll look "bad" again as they go on another road trip. Then they'll look great before the Club World Cup break because there are three matches at home (note that Vancouver, the top of the West, is the team with more home games than any at this point).
Around July 4 you'll have an honest perception of how good this team is, without the constant up-and-down of the kiddie coaster that is an MLS season. Hopefully the highs bring you more joy than the lows, which if they continue going undefeated at home is rather likely.
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Catching up on Sounder at Heart
Here's what you missed on the site this week.
Sounders
Next match: Saturday, April 19 vs. Nashville SC | 4:30 pm PT | MLS Season Pass
- Everything you need to know about Sounders-Nashville SC
- Opposition scouting report: Nashville SC
- Under The Lights: Scouting Nashville SC with Ben Wright
- Sounders rounding into health
- Is It Time to Be Optimistic About the Sounders?
- Lobbing Scorchers: Seattle Sounders Technical Director Shares Development Secrets
- Realio’s Ratings: Moose takes points
Reign
Next match: Saturday, April 26 at Bay FC | 7 pm PT | Ion
- Reign earn gritty win over Portland at home
- Valkyratings: Growing pains mean you're growing
- The Cooler Guild: A somewhat expected loss, but a surprisingly good performance
Defiance
Next match: Wednesday, April 23 at Sporting II | 4 pm PT | MLS Season Pass
- Defiance will host Timbers in U.S. Open Cup Round of 32
- Key Performers in Defiance’s Open Cup win over Oakland Roots
Looking back at the news
Everything else you need to know
Seattle may wind up with open container spaces during the Men's World Cup. The biggest objection is "what about the children" by someone who lives hours away from Seattle. Sound Transit is planning for record ridership, and using the Club World Cup as a test for its plan. In other MWC news, the local organizing committee that once insisted it wouldn't need public money is now begging for public money.
One upon a time there were several women coaching in the NWSL. Laura Harvey misses those days.
Real Salt Lake, the Royals, the Monarchs, their many facilities are now owned by the Miller family. Jazz owner Ryan Smith is out. Blitzer remains, but as a minority owner. All that property and the three teams was only $600 million.
Chicago Fire are probably going to sign Kevin de Bruyne. De Bruyne hasn't started 3/4 of league matches since 2019-20. He'll be 34 when he starts playing at the cavernous Soldier Field.
Loudoun United might be at the worst pro facility in North American soccer. It's good to remember that just a few years ago it was hosting the NWSL.
More than 14,000 showed up to watch Quinn and Vancouver Rise start the Northern Super League off with a home win.
If you're trying to keep track of USL pro men's and women's expansion you should give up. Santa Rosa is on the list. There are nine expansion teams announced for the USL Championship with another six for League One – plus cities like Santa Rosa that haven't announced a destination league on the men's side yet.
On top of expansion by the USL is the announcement that the US is getting a second division women's league too. Yes, that would mean three pro women's leagues. American soccer is healthier and stronger than ever.
Kraken are lowering ticket and concession prices for season ticket holders. Please make this a local trend.
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